The Latin American Left-Leaning Populism Index
A new measure of active left-leaning populism.
Conceptualization
We’re excited to unveil the Latin American Left-Leaning Populism Index (LALLPI)—a new way to measure active populism across the region from 2000 to 2019 by the Center for Free Enterprise at UTEP.
For years, scholars have struggled to define and quantify populism. Most existing indices focus narrowly on populist rhetoric—what politicians say—often at the expense of what they actually do. The challenges of measuring populism have led to common pitfalls: limited country coverage, short time spans, and an overlook of how much of the populist rhetoric translates into policy.
LALLPI changes that.
Unlike traditional measures, LALLPI goes beyond speeches and slogans. It captures left-leaning populism in action by combining:
POP_R: Populist rhetoric
PEP: Economic populism (policies characteristic of left-leaning populist leaders)
PIP: Institutional populism (systemic changes made under populist regimes)
Together, PEP and PIP form the core of the index—ranging from 0 (least populist) to 100 (most populist)—and reflect the average intensity of populist governance, not just talk.
In short: LALLPI tells a deeper story about populism in Latin America—one based on action, not just words.
Some data
Here’s a first look at some aggregate data from the index. For those interested in digging deeper, country-level scores and methodology details are available on the project’s website.
The chart below tracks the evolution of populism across Latin America from 2001 to 2019, breaking it down into:
Overall Index (
POP)Economic Populism (
PEP)Institutional Populism (
PIP)
Between 2005 and 2014, all components of the index show a notable upward trend, reflecting a surge in active populist policies and institutional changes across the region.
The chart below highlights South America as the region with the highest intensity of left-leaning populism in Latin America.
Central America also shows a notable rise—primarily driven by:
Daniel Ortega’s regime in Nicaragua (beginning in 2007)
El Salvador’s Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN)
Guatemala’s National Unity of Hope (UNE)
In Central America, the increase in populism is largely institutional—reflecting changes to democratic norms and rule of law—rather than economic policy shifts..
Country rankings, 2018
LALLPI’s 2018 rankings align closely with both the academic literature and real-world political developments in the region (see table below). We use 2018 as a reference point due to its more complete data coverage.
Top Populist Countries in 2018:
Venezuela
Bolivia
Nicaragua
Ecuador
These four lead the pack—and together with Argentina, they make up what we call the “Iconic 5” of Latin American left-leaning populism.
But why is Argentina ranked lower in 2018?
That year, Mauricio Macri’s Cambiemos coalition was in power, a government characterized by low populist intensity, which is reflected in its POP_R score.
El Salvador also ranks high in 2018, capturing the populist policies and rhetoric of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) in office.
Over the coming weeks, we’ll continue sharing new insights drawn from the LALLPI dataset as well as how these populist regimes look in some of these countries—so stay tuned!
In the meantime, you can explore:
A detailed overview of the methodology and data
Country-specific profiles
And soon: the index’s working paper, which we’ll post here once it's available
Our Goal
We hope the LALLPI project helps broaden the lens of public choice research in Latin America and offers a valuable tool to track and understand the populist waves that have shaped the region's political landscape.
We want to hear from you!
If you haven’t already, head over to our first post and take a moment to answer the short survey—let us know what kind of content you’d like to see next!
